Helsen, S., van Lipzig, N. P. M., Demuzere, M., Vanden Broucke, S., Caluwaerts, S., De Cruz, L., De Troch, R., Hamdi, R., Termonia, P., Van Schaeybroeck, B., & Wouters, H. (2020). Consistent scale-dependency of future increases in hourly extreme precipitation in two convection-permitting climate models. Climate Dynamics, 54(3-4), 1267-1280. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-05056-w

@article{b24ada8226c8412b9f1e961cd71eab53,
title = "Consistent scale-dependency of future increases in hourly extreme precipitation in two convection-permitting climate models",
abstract = "Convection-permitting models (CPMs) have been proven successful in simulating extreme precipitation statistics. However, when such models are used to study climate change, contrasting sensitivities with respect to resolution (CPM vs. models with parameterized convection) are found for different parts of the world. In this study, we explore to which extent this contrasting sensitivity is due to the specific characteristics of the model or due to the characteristics of the region. Therefore, we examine the results of 360 years of climate model data from two different climate models (COSMO-CLM driven by EC-EARTH and ALARO-0 driven by CNRM ARPEGE) both at convection-permitting scale (CPS, ~ 3 km resolution) and non-convection-permitting scale (non-CPS, 12.5 km resolution) over two distinct regions (flatland vs. hilly region) in Belgium. We found that both models show an overall consistent scale-dependency of the future increase in hourly extreme precipitation for day-time. More specifically, both models yield a larger discrepancy in the day-time climate change signal between CPS and non-CPS for extreme precipitation over flatland (Flanders) than for orographically induced extreme precipitation (Ardennes). This result is interesting, since both RCMs are very different (e.g., in terms of model physics and driving GCM) and use very different ways to represent deep convection processes. Despite those model differences, the scale-dependency of projected precipitation extremes is surprisingly similar in both models, suggesting that the this scale-dependency is more dependent on the characteristics of the region, than on the model used.",
keywords = "ALARO-0, Climate change, Convection-permitting simulations, CORDEX.be, COSMO-CLM, Extreme hourly precipitation, Parameterization",
author = "Samuel Helsen and {van Lipzig}, {Nicole P.M.} and Matthias Demuzere and {Vanden Broucke}, Sam and Steven Caluwaerts and {De Cruz}, Lesley and {De Troch}, Rozemien and Rafiq Hamdi and Piet Termonia and {Van Schaeybroeck}, Bert and Hendrik Wouters",
note = "Funding Information: The work presented here received funding from the Belgian federal government (Belgian Science Policy Office project BR/143/A2/CORDEX.be) and by the European Research Council (ERC), under Grant Agreement No. 715254 (DRY-2-DRY). The computational resources and services used in this work were provided by the VSC (Flemish Supercomputer Center), funded by the Research Foundation ?Flanders (FWO) and the Flemish Government?department EWI. The hourly observational data was provided by VMM (Flemish Environmental Agency). These datasets are available at these institutions upon request. The climate model data used in this study can be requested through the CORDEX.be project website (http://www.euro-corde.be). Finally, we would especially like to thank Erik Van Meijgaard, for providing us with the EC-EARTH GCM data, and for several constructive discussions. Funding Information: The work presented here received funding from the Belgian federal government (Belgian Science Policy Office project BR/143/A2/CORDEX.be) and by the European Research Council (ERC), under Grant Agreement No. 715254 (DRY-2-DRY). The computational resources and services used in this work were provided by the VSC (Flemish Supercomputer Center), funded by the Research Foundation \u2013Flanders (FWO) and the Flemish Government\u2014department EWI. The hourly observational data was provided by VMM (Flemish Environmental Agency). These datasets are available at these institutions upon request. The climate model data used in this study can be requested through the CORDEX.be project website ( http://www.euro-corde.be ). Finally, we would especially like to thank Erik Van Meijgaard, for providing us with the EC-EARTH GCM data, and for several constructive discussions. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.",
year = "2020",
month = feb,
day = "1",
doi = "10.1007/s00382-019-05056-w",
language = "English",
volume = "54",
pages = "1267--1280",
journal = "Climate Dynamics",
issn = "0930-7575",
publisher = "Springer Verlag",
number = "3-4",
}