Subdaily precipitation extremes are high-impact events that can result in flash floods, sewer system overload, or landslides. Several studies have reported an intensification of projected short-duration extreme rainfall in a warmer future climate. Traditionally, regional climate models (RCMs) are run at a coarse resolution using deep-convection parameterization for these extreme events. As computational resources are continuously ramping up, these models are run at convection-permitting resolution, thereby partly resolving the small-scale precipitation events explicitly. To date, a comprehensive evaluation of convection-permitting models is still missing. We propose an evaluation strategy for simulated subdaily rainfall extremes that summarizes the overall RCM performance. More specifically, the following metrics are addressed: the seasonal/diurnal cycle, temperature and humidity dependency, temporal scaling, and spatiotemporal clustering. The aim of this paper is as follows: (i) to provide a statistical modeling framework for some of the metrics, based on extreme value analysis, (ii) to apply the evaluation metrics to a microensemble of convection-permitting RCM simulations over Belgium against high-frequency observations, and (iii) to investigate the added value of convection-permitting scales with respect to coarser 12-km resolution. We find that convection-permitting models improved precipitation extremes on shorter time scales (i.e., hourly or 2 hourly), but not on 6–24-h time scales. Some metrics such as the diurnal cycle or the Clausius–Clapeyron rate are improved by convection-permitting models, whereas the seasonal cycle appears to be robust across spatial scales. On the other hand, the spatial dependence is poorly represented at both convection-permitting scales and coarser scales. Our framework provides perspectives for improving high-resolution atmospheric numerical modeling and datasets for hydrological applications.
Van de Vyver, H, Van Schaeybroeck, B, De Troch, R, De Cruz, L, Hamdi, R, Villanueva-Birriel, C, Marbaix, P, van Ypersele, J-P, Wouters, H, Vanden Broucke, S, van Lipzig, NPM, Doutreloup, S, Wyard, C, Scholzen, C, Fettweis, X, Caluwaerts, S & Termonia, P 2021, 'Evaluation framework for subdaily rainfall extremes simulated by regional climate models', Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, vol. 60, no. 10, pp. 1423-1442. https://doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-21-0004.1
Van de Vyver, H., Van Schaeybroeck, B., De Troch, R., De Cruz, L., Hamdi, R., Villanueva-Birriel, C., Marbaix, P., van Ypersele, J.-P., Wouters, H., Vanden Broucke, S., van Lipzig, N. P. M., Doutreloup, S., Wyard, C., Scholzen, C., Fettweis, X., Caluwaerts, S., & Termonia, P. (2021). Evaluation framework for subdaily rainfall extremes simulated by regional climate models. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 60(10), 1423-1442. https://doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-21-0004.1
@article{0c9de81b8bc14b0ea9679377ace4dae4,
title = "Evaluation framework for subdaily rainfall extremes simulated by regional climate models",
abstract = "Subdaily precipitation extremes are high-impact events that can result in flash floods, sewer system overload, or landslides. Several studies have reported an intensification of projected short-duration extreme rainfall in a warmer future climate. Traditionally, regional climate models (RCMs) are run at a coarse resolution using deep-convection parameterization for these extreme events. As computational resources are continuously ramping up, these models are run at convection-permitting resolution, thereby partly resolving the small-scale precipitation events explicitly. To date, a comprehensive evaluation of convection-permitting models is still missing. We propose an evaluation strategy for simulated subdaily rainfall extremes that summarizes the overall RCM performance. More specifically, the following metrics are addressed: the seasonal/diurnal cycle, temperature and humidity dependency, temporal scaling, and spatiotemporal clustering. The aim of this paper is as follows: (i) to provide a statistical modeling framework for some of the metrics, based on extreme value analysis, (ii) to apply the evaluation metrics to a microensemble of convection-permitting RCM simulations over Belgium against high-frequency observations, and (iii) to investigate the added value of convection-permitting scales with respect to coarser 12-km resolution. We find that convection-permitting models improved precipitation extremes on shorter time scales (i.e., hourly or 2 hourly), but not on 6–24-h time scales. Some metrics such as the diurnal cycle or the Clausius–Clapeyron rate are improved by convection-permitting models, whereas the seasonal cycle appears to be robust across spatial scales. On the other hand, the spatial dependence is poorly represented at both convection-permitting scales and coarser scales. Our framework provides perspectives for improving high-resolution atmospheric numerical modeling and datasets for hydrological applications.",
keywords = "Atmospheric Science",
author = "\{Van de Vyver\}, Hans and \{Van Schaeybroeck\}, Bert and \{De Troch\}, Rozemien and \{De Cruz\}, Lesley and Rafiq Hamdi and Cecille Villanueva-Birriel and Philippe Marbaix and \{van Ypersele\}, Jean-Pascal and Hendrik Wouters and \{Vanden Broucke\}, Sam and \{van Lipzig\}, \{Nicole P.M.\} and S{\'e}bastien Doutreloup and Coraline Wyard and Chlo{\'e} Scholzen and Xavier Fettweis and Steven Caluwaerts and Piet Termonia",
note = "Funding Information: Acknowledgments. This work is supported by URCLIM and has received funding from EU\textbackslash{}u2019s H2020 Research and Innovation Program under Grant Agreement 690462. The CORDEX.be project was financially supported by the Belgian Science Policy (BELSPO) under Contract BR/143/A2. CICADA is the valorization project of CORDEX.be and has been supported by BELSPO. The computational resources and services for the ALARO-0 regional climate simulations were provided by the VSC (Flemish Supercomputer Center), funded by the Research Foundation\textbackslash{}u2013 Flanders (FWO) and the Flemish government department EWI. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021 American Meteorological Society.",
year = "2021",
month = oct,
doi = "10.1175/jamc-d-21-0004.1",
language = "English",
volume = "60",
pages = "1423--1442",
journal = "Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology",
issn = "1558-8424",
publisher = "American Meteorological Society",
number = "10",
}