Thyroid cancer incidence around the Belgian nuclear sites: Surrogate exposure modelling
 
Thyroid cancer incidence around the Belgian nuclear sites: Surrogate exposure modelling 
 
Kaatje Bollaerts, , Koen Simons, Fierens Sébastien, André Poffijn, Lodewijk Van Bladel, David Geraerts, Pol Gosselin, Herman Van Oyen, Julie Francart, An Van Nieuwenhuyse
 
Abstract 

BackgroundIn a recent ecological study among residents living around Belgian nuclear sites (the NUCABEL study), significant increased incidences of thyroid cancer were observed around the two nuclear facilities with industrial and research activities (Mol-Dessel and Fleurus), prompting further research.MethodsThe data from the NUCABEL study were reanalysed to test the hypothesis of a gradient in cancer incidence with increasing levels of exposure from these sites using three measures of surrogate exposure, being (i) residential proximity, (ii) prevailing wind directions and (iii) simulated dispersion of radioactive discharges. Single-site focussed hypothesis tests were complemented with Generalized Additive Models to estimate the exposure-response relationships.ResultsFor Mol-Dessel, the results of the focussed hypothesis tests were far from significant. For Fleurus, the p-values were much closer to significance with p = 0.05 for Bithell's Linear Risk Score using radioactive discharge estimates as surrogate.ConclusionsThe re-analyses refute an association with the nuclear facilities for the site of Mol-Dessel. For the site of Fleurus, one of Europe's major production sites of radio-iodines, the results were less conclusive and further research suggests itself.