Publication Details
François Duchêne, Rafiq Hamdi, Bert Van Schaeybroeck, Steven Caluwaerts, Rozemien De Troch, Lesley De Cruz, Piet Termonia

Urban Climate

Contribution To Journal


There is an increasing need to obtain climate projections for cities using an ensemble approach for uncertainty estimation. Yet, current-day computational resources are too limited to dynamically downscale GCM ensembles to urban scale. Here, a recently developed and validated statistical-dynamical computationally-cheap method is employed to downscale ten EURO-CORDEX climate projections over Brussels (Belgium) covering the period 1971–2100. Results show that, under the Paris agreement, summer mean projected temperature in Brussels will rise by 3.6 °C to 4.1 °C [+ - 0.7 °C] on average. The Urban Heat Island (UHI) intensity does not increase under future global warming with even a slight decrease under heatwave (HW) conditions by 0.1 °C (±0.1 °C). However, the number of HW days is projected to be 30.6% and 158.9% higher for the 2 °C and 3 °C Global Warming Levels (GWL), respectively, as compared to 1.5 °C GWL. The heat stress during HW periods also follows the same trend: compared to a 1.5 °C GWL, the number of extreme heat stress days at 2 °C (3 °C) GWL will increase by 29% (91%) on average inside the city. The results can be used in support of adaptation measures, which should be considered for future resilience of the city of Brussels.

DOI scopus